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Why three quotes, and not one

What the spread between quotes tells you, and how to read it.

Note1 min readPico Rivera, CA

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One number has no context

A single quote is unfalsifiable. You cannot tell whether it is generous or outrageous, because there is nothing to compare it against.

The spread is the information

Three quotes on the same roof routinely vary by forty per cent. That gap is rarely greed. It is usually scope — one is reusing flashing, one is not doing ventilation, one has priced two layers of tear-off.

How to read the outliers

The cheapest quote should be asked what it leaves out. The most expensive should be asked what you get for the difference. Both questions have good answers sometimes, and revealing answers always.

Why not five

Because the marginal information after three drops off sharply, and the marginal number of phone calls does not. Three is where the trade-off sits.

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